Obama's 4th quarter lead

Four years ago the presidential race was neck and neck, with an utterly despicable George W. Bush fighting back from a small deficit in the polls to the pathetically un-charismatic John Kerry, which would ultimately lead to a narrow if unbelievably insane victory on election day. If America was stupid enough to re-elect a man who stole the election of 2000 and then used September 11 as justification to attack Iraq without real cause, I wouldn't dream of saying that this year's presidential race is over. 

But Obama's lead is substantial. According to today's numbers at www.ElectoralVote.com, if the election were held today the Illinois senator would command roughly 357 electoral votes to McCain's 181. 

Although politics are always important, particularly surrounding the economic crisis this year, I think voters see an unmistakable difference between the even-keeled Obama and his opponents. In fact, Christopher Hitchens summed up the Republicans' problem in Slate a few days ago in just 17 words:

"Vote Obama. McCain lacks the character and temperament to be president. And Palin is simply a disgrace."

Even so, McCain and his rifle-wielding beauty contestant granddaughter from Alaska could unquestionably still win. I mean, Barack Obama is black for one thing, and America is still a racist country. Can we really act progressively enough to elect this man after four years ago choosing his antithesis?

Many swing voters and Republicans have in the past felt loyal to McCain because he seemed like his own person: the "maverick" brand he's exploited to the hilt. But watching McCain in this campaign, it's become increasingly clear that he is a exceptionally dangerous risk taker. Anyone who would choose Sarah Palin, for example, is willing to make a deal with the devil in order to win. And if McCain himself weren't the candidate, you'd expect a "maverick" like him to admit the obvious: that regardless of policy convictions, she isn't even in the same zip code as a qualified vice presidential candidate, let alone someone next in line for the presidency itself. And because McCain is clearly old and frail, that'd be a very major worry.

15 years ago the idea of a President Quayle was enough for t-shirt makers to co opt the famous painting "The Scream" as emblem of potential disaster waiting to happen. And Dan Quayle was actually far more qualified to be president than Sarah Palin. And maybe even less ignorant. (You know, just stupid instead of really stupid.)

It's as if the GOP has to have some kind of ridiculous extreme in the vice presidential candidate. Dick Cheney, VP for the last eight years, has acted almost as a lone coup d'etat within the US government. He is to the GOP what the NSA is to the CIA: more dangerously covert than the dangerously covert.

First when Bush got the nomination in 2000, Cheney was called upon to choose a running mate for Bush, and summarily treated all the candidates as personal enemies, using private investigation to undermine all of them and nominate himself for the running mate's slot. 

Then after the election, Cheney came to epitomize what the New York Times recently called "an administration that is a quicksand of deceit." Bush had come into office as a moderate Republican, but with Cheney leading the selection of a cabinet, the administration took a much more conservative turn. Worse yet, much of the vice president's machinations were even done behind the back of George W. Bush himself. In my mind, Cheney is the Emperor Palpatine to Bush's Anakin Skywalker.

But Palin is more like C3PO, charming but totally clueless amidst the struggles going on all around. And the fact that she's a woman makes it all the more painful to watch, as if the strides made by Hillary Clinton have spit at by the GOP.

When a sports team I support has a fourth quarter lead, it's a time for tense optimism. Obama doesn't hold a multiple touchdown lead here, either. More like a one touchdown lead. (Kerry was leading Bush by a point or two at this point.) But something as big as a terrorist attack between now and November 4 or some other wild card initiated by the increasingly desperate Republicans will at this point be required for them to win.

Obama taking the White House seems almost too implausibly wonderful and reason for optimism to actually come to fruition. But maybe, if things hold for another three weeks, it will have taken one of the worst presidencies in American history to produce the conditions for one of the best.

Comments

[Sara]

Dear God, let's just keep our fingers crossed.