More writing from Brian Libby

« Walthamstow, Victorieplein et al | Main | A Yankee Fan's Dilemma »



Have faith, my friend, have faith. I don't think that folks are registering to vote in droves because they want to preserve the status quo.


My heart sunk a bit when during the debate, Kerry answered the abortion question posed to him with this inconclusive, contorted maze of an answer while Bush came right out and made his (however repugnant) decision simple and known. Since abortion is hardly a hot issue in this election that is likely to change anyone's vote, it seemed like a perfect opportunity for Kerry to come right out with a nuanced but clearly pro-choice response that would showcase his conviction, since ultimately the content of his position is not the big point in this election. Instead, he seemed muddle-mouthed and deliberately obfuscated.


I went back and reread his answers to the 'partial-birth ban' and 'taxdollars for abortion' questions. He did give kind of roundabout answer. But I liked it. I liked that he emphasized that "It's never quite as simple as the president wants you to believe." It's time we stopped believing that anything is black & white. Nothing is black & white.

I'll go on the record as saying that I think Kerry is going to win. I hope he doesn't win the way Gore won (& lost) because this time I think we may see rioting and violence in response to the fraud and disenfranchisement. I _was_ heartened to see this weekend that The Oregonian endorsed Kerry for '04.


Even though I'm the one who said I think Kerry will lose, I can report one other possible reason for optimism: I was talking to somebody the other day who told me that polls don't always take young voters into account, because often they have only cell phones, which don't register for call logs that pollsters use. Granted young voters have very poor turnout traditionally, but I've heard there are, like Margaret mentioned, record numbers registering this time around.

Relatedly, because of the Florida debacle, I think many have forgotten that on election day in 2000 Gore did considerably better than polls in the 48 hours before the election indicated he would. Hopefully the same will be true for Kerry (minus the stolen election).


There's a transcript here of an online chat with political guru Charlie Cook in which he states, "...Since pollsters are not calling cell phones, almost one in five voters are not being included in poll samples."

The comments to this entry are closed.

Twitter Updates

    follow me on Twitter
    Blog powered by Typepad