There is growing evidence that the multi-year boom of rising housing prices may be finally ebbing. Home prices rose 57 percent over the last five years, but currently (according the the New York Times) the inventory of unsold existing homes is at a 13-year high, and builders' confidence is at a 15-year low.
But the overall market is still dominated by single-family homes. What I'd like to know is exactly how much this will affect the condo market, and particularly in Portland. Certainly the presumed end of the overall housing boom would have some effect. We wont see as much 'flipping' of condos (purchased with the intent of selling soon afterward at a higher price), of course. But how will this downturn affect the spectrum of planned projects in areas like South Waterfront, the West End, and the Pearl District? Or outer neighborhoods that were just starting to become viable for such projects, such as North Mississippi or Belmont?
It was only last Sunday that I came across a cover story in the Oregonian's Homes & Rentals section (not sure if it'd be classified as an advertorial) with the headline 'Condos rise near Belmont: Developers carve modern niche in classic Southeast neighborhood.' It profiled the Andria Condominiums on Belmont just east of 39th (designed by Myhre Group), the Morrison Street Lofts on Southeast 20th, and the Belmont townhome Condominiums. The article cast these projects as trend setters (although I'm not sold on two out of three design-wise), but will they really be?
To some degree, as we know, the demographics prompting condo buying transcend high and low real estate statistics: the downsizing boomers especially. And in our city the Urban Growth Boundary certainly figures in as well. So it seems doubtful that condo buildings will suffer the same dead period that office buildings have. But there's still a lot of room between that and the kind of boom that's been going on. Where does the needle point, though?
A slowdown means that there are fewer jobs out there for architects, contractors, engineers, and so on. And for architectural enthusiasts like me, it's fewer chances to get excited about the work being done. But from an urban planning and development perspective, I actually wonder if there might be some good that could come out of a slower pace.
I certainly don't wish developers any bad tidings for the future - just the opposite - but sometimes development has happened so fast that there hasn't been time to really take a good long look planning-wise at what we want places like the PD and SW to become. For the most part they seem to be turning out well anyway, but some of the problems the Pearl in particular has today, like the lack of a central spine and relatively low ratio of families, and so on, perhaps might have been addressed given more time. It's also possible, of course, that time would have simply been wasted. Nevertheless a neighborhood is probably only as mature as its trees.
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