Yesterday, seeking to better understand the demand for high-density housing in the central city after learning of record condo sales in South Waterfront at The John Ross, I had a conversation with professor Gerard Mildner of Portland State University's Toulan School of Urban Studies and Planning. Mildner, whose research is focused in part on growth management, housing markets and land use regulation, surprised me with his analysis of Portland’s population growth.
First, he dispelled what is a commonly held myth that I’ve long taken as gospel. “Despite all the discussion about revitalizing central cities,” Mildner said, “these areas are not growing faster than the suburbs. In America the central city’s percentage share of metropolitan area populations, is continuing to decline.” Mildner cited a Harvard University study of 96 metropolitan areas during the 1990s in which only three were found to be growing faster in the center of the city than in outlying areas—and Portland wasn’t one of those three.
Mildner is also skeptical of recent news that South Waterfront condo project The John Ross saw 80 percent of its units reserved in the first six days.
“It may be that they created something of an artificial hysteria by saying, ‘Only on this day can you reserve units.’ Otherwise it just doesn’t make any sense to me,” Mildner said. “If they really had this excess of buyers, why didn’t they price it higher? Maybe they made a pricing error, or maybe they were looking to push this story that it filled up so fast.” The professor cited South Waterfront developers’ need to create hype and momentum for future projects in the neighborhood as motivation for exaggerating the demand for these properties.
Although I think Mildner may be unfairly belittling the real demand there is for high-density condos in the central city, I do have to confess that I and many others have perhaps mistakenly assumed that there is an exodus of suburbanites to the city proper. On the contrary, there suburbs are growing more—or at least more people are moving there—than downtown and its immediate Portland environs.
At the same time, though, population figures are only part of the story. One could argue that the suburbs are growing faster simply because there’s so much more wasted space there to take advantage of.
Yet Mildner’s point is an important one, reminding us that what’s happening is not a population shift so much as a demographic shift. If the overall population isn’t increasing more near the central city, we are at least seeing a very significant infusion of middle class and affluent residents. Demand for property here is rising, and they’re the ones who can afford it. They are coming, I think, because of the increasing attractiveness of urban life. That has a downside, of course, in gentrification—communities of people forced to leave neighborhoods they’ve called home for generations. But the upward pricing of urban life is a sign that the product here, in the central city, is a good one.
Urban settings oriented towards pedestrians and mass transit rather than just cars and freeways are an increasingly attractive alternative to suburbs’ oppressive traffic seas of ugly surface parking lots. It’s not to say suburbs don’t have their good side too, with their greater affordability and far more space per person. But the dark days of the 1960s and 70s, when urban life was plagued by crime and decay, are long gone.
That, to me, is a big part of why units in The John Ross are going fast.
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